One-Third of Bitcoin Supply Now in Loss: Can BTC Regain Momentum Before 2025 Ends?

About one-third of Bitcoin’s supply is now held at a loss — last seen in late 2024. Despite the pressure, on-chain data and technicals point to a potential recovery as BTC consolidates near $100K.

Bitcoin Holders Face 2024-Level Losses — But Market Signals a Potential Recovery

As Bitcoin (BTC) consolidates below the $105,000 mark, new on-chain data reveals a significant shift in investor sentiment. Roughly one-third of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now held at a loss, levels not seen since September 2024.

Despite this, analysts suggest the market is far from panic territory. Historical data shows that similar drawdowns often precede periods of accumulation and renewed uptrends — suggesting Bitcoin could still recover before the year’s end.

Key On-Chain Insights

According to data from Glassnode, approximately 33% of Bitcoin’s total supply is currently held by wallets underwater relative to their cost basis. This metric indicates that a large segment of short-term holders — those who bought above $100,000 — are facing unrealized losses.

However, the overall market structure remains healthy. Exchange inflows are muted, and long-term holders continue to accumulate, signaling conviction among seasoned investors.

“Short-term losses are a feature of every consolidation phase,” said analyst Will Clemente.
“As long as long-term holders remain steady, it’s usually a sign of base-building before the next move.”

Technical Picture: Support and Recovery Zone

On the technical side, BTC’s price has been trading between $98,000 and $103,000, forming a symmetrical consolidation range after its strong rally earlier this quarter.

Key levels to watch:

• Immediate support: $98,000
• Critical support: $94,500 (200-day EMA)
• Resistance zone: $106,000–$110,000

Momentum indicators such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index) have cooled to near-neutral levels, suggesting reduced overbought pressure. If Bitcoin holds above $98,000, analysts anticipate a potential rebound toward $110,000 before year-end.

Market Sentiment: Cooling but Not Collapsing

Funding rates on major futures platforms have normalized, and open interest has declined slightly — a sign that speculative excess is being flushed out. Meanwhile, stablecoin inflows are picking up, hinting at fresh buying power waiting on the sidelines.

“The current phase looks like mid-cycle consolidation, not capitulation,” noted CryptoQuant researcher Julio Moreno.
“BTC remains structurally bullish heading into 2026, especially if ETF inflows stabilize.”

Macro Context

Bitcoin’s recent correction mirrors broader risk-off sentiment in global markets, as investors weigh U.S. inflation data and interest rate signals from the Federal Reserve. The upcoming months could see increased volatility, but analysts believe institutional flows and upcoming halving-driven supply constraints will limit downside risks.

Outlook: Accumulation Before the Next Leg Up

With roughly a third of Bitcoin’s supply now held at a loss, the market appears to be entering a reaccumulation phase rather than a full-blown correction. Historically, similar conditions have preceded strong year-end recoveries — particularly when network activity remains steady and long-term holders stay unmoved.

If BTC maintains support near $100K, analysts project potential upside toward $120K–$130K before early 2026.