Gemini Prepares to Offer Prediction Market Contracts

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 Gemini is reportedly exploring prediction market contracts, signaling a bold new direction for the Winklevoss-led exchange. The move could bring regulated event-based trading into the crypto mainstream.

Crypto exchange Gemini, founded by the Winklevoss twins, is reportedly gearing up to launch prediction market contracts, marking its latest strategic move to diversify revenue and regain competitive ground in the evolving digital asset landscape.

According to a Bloomberg report on Tuesday, Gemini has held internal discussions about introducing prediction-based trading products — possibly allowing users to bet on real-world events such as elections, economic indicators, or crypto market outcomes.

While the firm has not officially confirmed the development, sources suggest that the launch could happen sooner than expected, as the company seeks to expand beyond traditional crypto exchange services.

Prediction Markets: A Growing Trend in Crypto

Prediction markets allow users to speculate on the outcome of future events — from sports and politics to macroeconomic shifts — by trading shares that represent possible outcomes. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have already gained traction, with increasing regulatory attention as their popularity grows.

Gemini’s potential entry into this space signals a mainstream push toward regulated prediction markets, which could appeal to both retail traders and institutional investors. If successful, it could challenge incumbents like BetDEX, Augur, and Polymarket, especially if Gemini leverages its strong compliance and licensing framework.

Regulatory and Competitive Implications

The move comes at a time when U.S. regulators are scrutinizing event-based trading products. Platforms offering “bet-like” instruments have faced restrictions unless registered under commodities or derivatives laws.

However, Gemini’s proactive compliance stance could position it advantageously. Analysts suggest that a CFTC-compliant prediction market from a well-established exchange could bridge the gap between decentralized platforms and regulated finance.

“If Gemini gets this right, it could redefine the prediction market landscape and attract institutional capital,” said crypto analyst Alex Krüger.

Strategic Repositioning After Setbacks

After navigating a turbulent year marked by regulatory challenges and the Genesis bankruptcy fallout, Gemini has been actively seeking new business lines. From its international derivatives platform to interest-bearing products, the exchange is clearly aiming to reassert its innovation edge.

Launching prediction markets would not only expand Gemini’s product suite but also diversify its revenue base at a time when crypto exchanges are looking beyond spot trading.

Market Outlook

If Gemini’s plans materialize, it could legitimize a sector that’s long operated on the fringes of DeFi. Institutional players may follow suit, potentially driving billions in volume as global interest in event-driven trading grows.

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