ETH Long-Term Holders Offload 45K ETH Daily — Is a Drop to $2,500 Coming?

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Ethereum is under heavy selling pressure as long-term holders accelerate their distribution at a rate not seen in more than three years. With ETH sliding toward the $3,000 psychological level, analysts warn that a deeper correction could open the doors to $2,500 — or even lower — unless bullish momentum returns quickly.

Below is a full breakdown of the on-chain data, ETF flows, and technical factors shaping ETH’s next major move.

Long-Term Holders Unload 45,000 ETH Per Day

Ethereum’s decline toward $3,000 has been accompanied by a sharp surge in selling from long-term holders — wallets that have held ETH for at least 155 days.

According to Glassnode’s data on spent volume by age:

  • 45,000 ETH—worth roughly $140 million per day—is flowing out of wallets held for 3 to 10 years.

  • This is the highest level of long-term holder selling since February 2021.

Such aggressive distribution typically signals fear among veteran investors, historically a precursor to deeper market corrections.

Ethereum ETFs Record Their Worst Outflows Since October

The selling isn’t limited to on-chain holders. Institutional investors are also reducing their exposure.

Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded:

  • $259 million in net outflows on Thursday,

  • Their worst performance since Oct. 10,

  • Marking four consecutive days of redemptions,

  • With a total of $1.42 billion withdrawn since early November.

This combination of long-term holder selling and institutional outflows creates a powerful headwind for ETH price recovery.

On-Chain Metrics Show Weakening Network Demand

While Ethereum remains the market leader, accounting for 56% of DeFi’s total value locked, network activity is slipping:

Key On-Chain Indicators (30-Day Changes)

  • TVL dropped 21%

  • Network fees fell 42%, hitting $27.54 million

  • User demand for blockspace has softened significantly

For comparison:

  • Solana fees dropped only 9.8%

  • BNB Chain fees fell 45%

The decline in fees and TVL signals weakening user engagement — often reflected in continued price softness.

Additionally, rising market fear has returned to levels last seen during the April tariff-related sell-off, adding more bearish sentiment around ETH.

Technical Outlook: Bear Flag Targets $2,500–$2,280

Technically, Ethereum has broken down from a significant bear flag pattern on the daily chart after losing support near $3,450, where the 200-day SMA also sits.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

  • $3,350 — 50-week EMA (lost, turning into resistance)

  • $3,000 — critical psychological support

  • $2,500–$2,280 — bear flag measured move target

  • Trend remains bearish unless ETH reclaims $3,350 quickly

Analyst Bitcoinsensus noted that previous breakdowns from this macro level led to major declines — including a 60% drop in early 2021.

A repeat of that behavior could pressure ETH significantly if bulls fail to defend $3,000.

Can Bulls Avoid a Deeper Pullback?

All eyes are now on the $3,000 support zone. Holding this level is essential to prevent a continuation of the current downtrend. A decisive bounce above $3,350 would be the first real sign of strength.

However, if long-term holders continue selling at the current pace and ETF outflows persist, ETH may not avoid a retest of $2,500 — or even the lower $2,280 target.

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